Tennessee Titans:
The Titans needed two players back for the offense to run the same as last year. They needed to find a way to get RB Derrick Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill on the team for another season. The team franchise tagged Henry and signed Tannehill to a long-term deal.
Henry was more deserving of a long-term contract because he’s the engine that makes this team move, but second contracts on RBs have proved problematic in recent years. Henry has an aggressive running style that will likely produce again this season, but many wonder how long he can keep it up.
RB production hits like a cliff, the fall from one year to the next is dramatic. Contracts like Todd Gurley and David Johnson seemed like good contracts until the production fell off and once it did, the team did whatever it took to move on from the player. For now, Henry will be a go, but beware, he is a RB entering his second contract and it’s within this second contract that RBs tend to decline rapidly. He will be a first-round pick in fantasy drafts, regardless of his lack of pass-catching production.
Ryan Tannehill: He played in 11 games last season, but from week 7 on when he became the official starter, Tannehill was one of the best in the NFL. The Titans are placing a bet on Tannehill that he can maintain similar production regardless of the fact that he struggled in Miami for six years. Good enough to stay the starter but up and down play. During his 11-game tryout Tannehill averaged 22.5 fantasy points in 10 starts. If he kept up that pace all season long, he would have ranked as the No. 2 QB behind Lamar Jackson.
It’s hard to trust Tannehill and the Titans will recreate the success they had last season. The 7-3 sample size is good but too small to predict ahead. Overall, I like this team and what they built. Tannehill will likely be drafted as a high-end QB 2, which means if you wait on QBs you can take him with little risk. He will likely regress, but Henry, Tannehill, and AJ Brown are a good trio for the Titans and fantasy owners moving forward.
Dennis Kelly: Resigned as a versatile tackle plays on the right side but has played on the left when asked to fill in. Strong tackle helps keep the line consistent.
Houston Texans:
David Johnson: Well Bill O’ Brien really bungled this one. DeAndre Hopkins is no longer a Texan but hey now the team has an aging RB… Johnson is 28 years old, in his sixth year in the NFL. Last two years, his RB production decreased to 3.7 Yards Per Attempt, which ranks 41st out of the 32 starting jobs in the NFL.
Johnson will be given plenty of opportunity as the starting RB for an RB needy team, especially after the backlash O’Brien has gotten for this trade. But it is hard to trust an RB after you’ve seen the wheels start to come off. It’s very rare an RB resurges after their decline. In an offense that’s lost special playmakers and will be behind often because of a porous defense, Johnson will likely struggle as a rusher, but he maintains upside as a pass-catcher. Johnson remained an RB 1 through the first six games of the 2019 season, in part, because he averaged 5 catches and .5 TDs a game. Overall, I think his production comes down, but his receiving will keep his PPR fantasy value afloat. Not a player I am proactively seeking out, but if he continues to fall in the draft, for the right price, I would look at him as a rotational/bench RB.
Randall Cobb: Decent at times, a matchup-based flex, but not a player who should take up too much of your fantasy thought. He will be a WR 4 or 5. Still the fourth option on a high-volume passing team, behind the other WRs and Johnson as well.
Darren Fells: Was an up and down TE who was very usable until his week 10 bye. After that week his season arrow was mainly pointing down. He finished as the top TE on his team and 17th in PPR formats. Hopkins leaving vacates 150 targets from the offense. Fells’ stock improves slightly, but he will continue to be a usable TE you can pull off the waivers if needed.
Ka’imi Fairbairn: Fairbairn’s production dropped off from his 2018 season; he went from 168 total points to 105, depending on your scoring settings. The biggest difference, he attempted 42 field goals in ’18 which was a career-high, the other two years with the Texans he attempted 25 field goals. A decent kicker, always kicking 80 percent or higher, but now the offense won’t be as prolific as in years past.
Kicker philosophy changes from person to person but I like to draft a kicker on an elite offense or defense. Last year I had Harrison Butker and when I dropped him for his bye, I picked up Robbie Gould. Both were usually double-digit scorers. Some may think the Texans will still move the chains but kick more field goals without Hopkins, which is entirely possible, but I look at it as: if they fall behind, they will elect to go for it more than they will elect to kick field goals. Fairbairn will likely finish as the 10th kicker or worse.
Indianapolis Colts:
Anthony Castonzo: This was huge for the Colts. The offensive line remains intact, the pro-bowler alternate re-signs, and Philip Rivers’ blind side is now well protected. The Colts O-line will remain one of the best in the league.
Philip Rivers: He struggled last year, throwing 23 TDs and 20 interceptions in the 2019 season. But he also threw for 4600 yards and had one of the worst O-line protection in the league. The thought is his interceptions will come down with more time in the pocket and I think they will. But the Colts need to add another offensive weapon for Rivers to have a chance to hit his ceiling. The Colts will likely add another WR in the second round of the draft, but it may take some time for the rookie to get acclimated. At this point, Rivers is a low-end QB 2.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
Tyler Eifert: No thank you. He ranked 19th last year in PPR and is always at risk to reaggravate any one of his previous injuries. Learn to quit injury-prone TEs like Eifert and Jordan Reed. The aggravations are not worth it.