Week 13 of 2020, chopping block week, or for those who played against Darren Waller: “Make It STOP” tight end week. The number two fantasy tight end erupted for 200 receiving yards, 13 receptions and two TDs. The historic game was just the fifth time ever a Pro Bowl tight end topped 200-yards receiving in a single game. He seemed to be the only target on the field, commanding 17 of Derek Carr’s 47 pass attempts - the week’s highest target count.
This breakout performance overshadowed an even more consistent fantasy option in Travis Kelce. Kelce’s 136 receiving yards, eight receptions and one TD were pretty much par for the course during his season-long dominance. Kelce’s 12 targets were tied as the third-highest count for the week - only DeAndre Hopkins’ 13 targets stood between Waller and Kelce as the
Waller and Kelce proved that their production was more significant than any typical tight end. They rivaled top-tier wide receivers like Hopkins but gave fantasy managers an edge by slotting into the tight end position.
Since 2012, an elite tier of tight ends has risen to the top, separating themselves from the rest of the landscape. Every year that tier has eclipsed 198 points per reception (PPR), or 162 half PPR, creating wide receiver value at the tight end position. Consider this a threshold for tier-one tight ends. Each year, there are precisely two to five tight ends that make that first tier, no more, no less.
Fantasy managers felt the most significant drop off from tier one to two in 2020, when Waller outscored T.J. Hockenson 251.9 to 169.8, an 82.1-point differential. Excluding 2020’s inflated year, the gap from tier one to tier two tight ends averaged 25.5 PPR over the last eight years. You cannot replace the value of a top-tier tight end because the gap between the first and second-tier is so large.
Running backs are the only other position with as large and consistent of a drop-off. However, only the top-four drafters truly have a shot at the year’s elite running backs, whereas elite tight ends frequently slip to the second round and further. Running backs in the second round have more questions than the top tight ends taken in the same round.
For a tight end to achieve these tier-one thresholds, they must average 13.2 PPR and 10.8 half PPR per game. It’s essential to keep that in mind when looking forward to the new 17-game NFL season - when the thresholds likely increase to 211 PPR and 173 half PPR.
The data on Fantasy Pros goes back further for PPR than half PPR scoring, so I will predominantly use PPR throughout the article but will mention half PPR where I can. The strategy remains the same for PPR and half PPR but does not apply as much in standard scoring where touchdowns are king.
Although you only play one tight end each week - compared to the two or three running backs and wide receivers - a capable starter is not easy to play off the waiver wire, especially if you face a top-tier tight end.
The goal of drafting a top-tier tight end isn’t to grab a top-24 flex starter but rather win a position, especially in playoffs when the margin for error narrows.
This is where playoff contenders separate themselves. Waller and Kelce were on 25 percent of the top-500 teams on Yahoo, higher than some of the league’s top-10 wide receivers.
But to this day, fantasy analysts still take top-tier wide receivers over a top-tier tight end in the first few rounds, even though late-round wide receiver talent is much easier to find. According to Fantasy Pros' 2020 Average Draft Position (ADP), Stefon Diggs, Will Fuller, Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Boyd and many others were all selected after Waller and still finished as top-30 wide receivers. Showing how deep that position is relative to tight ends.
Despite this evidence, the top tight ends continue to be undervalued and under-discussed. This article highlights the importance of drafting a top-five tight end - I hope to convince you to draft a top-tier difference-maker at an inconsistent position for their weekly tactical advantage.
Roster Construction Wins Leagues, Not Points
Tier-one tight ends win leagues because of the roster advantage. Most people see this but still believe that late-round player projections can trump this notion.
In other words, seasons like Mark Andrews’ and Darren Waller’s 2019 breakout seasons, Eric Ebron’s TD-fueled 2018 season or Gary Barnidge’s 2015 surprise. These late-round lottery ticket tight ends are aberrations and not the rule.
The lottery ticket is just that; only one person out of twelve is likely to hit on the correct guy. Since 2015, eight tight ends drafted outside the top five became tier-one tight ends.
Lottery ticket tight ends that became top tier but drafted outside the top 5
2020: none
2019: Andrews (TE14), Waller (TE18)
2018: Kittle (TE13), Ebron (TE18)
2017: Ertz (TE7)
2016: none
2015: Reed (TE19), Barnidge (undrafted), Walker (TE10)
Average: 1.333 tight ends over the last six years.
It’s much easier to hit on top-tier tight ends if you take one of the top-five drafted tight ends. Since 2015, 13 of the top-five tight ends drafted have hit as top-tier tight ends. That’s five more chances of drafting a significant difference-maker compared to the lottery tickets above. The top-tier is always composed of at least two of the top-five projected tight ends.
Top five drafted tight ends that finished as top tier
2020: Kelce (TE1), Waller (TE5)
2019: Kelce (TE1), Ertz (TE3), Kittle (TE2)
2018: Kelce (TE2), Ertz (TE3)
2017: Kelce (TE2), Gronk (TE1)
2016: Kelce (TE5), Olsen (TE3)
2015: Gronk (TE1), Olsen (TE3)
Average: 2.2 tight ends over the last six years.
And if you look even further, the projected top three hit more than the fourth and fifth tight end. The fourth tight end hasn’t hit since 2013, so be wary of Mark Andrews - the current TE4 who finished outside the top-tier in 2020 as well.
* All above TE ADPs come from Fantasy Football Calculator.
When the TE1 did hit, he finished as the first or second highest scorer every year. TE1 and TE2 have only busted once each over the last nine years - injuries accounted for the other six instances they didn’t finish as top-tier tight ends.
Hitting on a top-tier tight end is such a significant advantage; I’d rather invest earlier draft capital on a surer prospect than save that capital for the risky upside of a lottery ticket tight end. You have to spend draft equity somewhere. Why not make it the shallowest position with the most significant drop-off?
Fantasy football is a supply and demand-driven game. Forget total points for now, let's focus on roster construction.
Only two to five tight ends (out of the 12 started in a league) will reach 198 PPR - or 162 half PPR - and become consistent starters.
In the best-case scenario, that's five out of 12 tight ends drafted that will hit as starting difference-makers - just a 41.7 percent success rate.
In order for running backs to have a worse hit rate, only nine of the starting 24 running backs would reach 198 PPR - or 162 half PPR.
The worst year for running backs in the last decade was 2015 when only nine running backs had 198 PPR. But even then, the point difference to the next running back wasn’t as significant as it is for tight ends. The 198 PPR didn’t signify a drastic tier break. Matt Forte (194.7 PPR) was serviceable with only six points less than David Johnson (200.9 PPR).
That was the worst year for running backs reaching 198 PPR, so even that 37.5 percent hit rate was better than the worst tight end years of 2016 and 2020 - when only two tight ends made the top-tier threshold. The success rate of having a top-tier tight end went as low as 16.7 percent.
Every other year, at least 10 or more running backs reach 198 PPR and become significant difference-makers. Wide receivers had 16 or more players hit 198 PPR every year.
So, both running backs and wide receivers will have more hits on significant difference-makers - even when needing two for the position - than tight ends. That applies even more in half PPR. More running backs hit that 162 half-PPR threshold, while the wide receivers remained 16 or more deep.
In layman’s terms, the tight end position is top-heavy and shallow; all other positions have more depth.
This lack of depth pushes up their inherent value. Like gold, diamonds or the latest Top Shot pack, only a select few will get their hands on the limited supply.
You might be wondering how early in the draft should you be taking a top-tier tight end. A simple answer: you’ll probably have to take one in the first two rounds, especially as more people catch on to their value. A more nuanced answer: it’s all about ADP manipulation.
Each year the market will dictate the draft spot where each player is going. If I get to pick my draft spot, I like to pick two to three places ahead of the ADP of the targeted tight end to ensure I hold off any early buyers. I’m not looking to gain value on the position. I’m looking to spend up on a skim landscape and get value back from deeper positions like wide receiver and quarterback.
Not only are those positions deep in the draft, but a handful always emerge as waiver wire heroes as well.
Practice Makes Perfect
I CANNOT STRESS THIS NEXT POINT ENOUGH.
The most important thing you can do to prepare for your draft is mock draft until your fingers go numb. I think I participated in over 70 mock drafts - probably a little unnecessary - I was addicted like swiping right. Single millennials will get the reference.
You will know you are ready when you are one with the draft board. Every move will feel planned out. You’ll be confident through the first six rounds of your draft. Like studying for a test, the nerves are there until you start crushing the first few questions.
Suppose you’re in a league where you get to pick your draft spot, even better.
The last two years I won, I chose the eighth spot in 2019 and the first spot in 2020. In 2019, I knew I was going to take Travis Kelce in the second round. In 2020, I knew I’d do the same with George Kittle.
Running back in the first and tight end in the second has been my philosophy, but you’ll have to adjust where you draft based on your league’s size and the ADP of the platform you’re drafting on. That’s why practicing becomes so crucial. Every platform will have different ADPs, and we’re trying to find that sweet spot of hitting running back, tight end and another valued prospect in the third.
I was comfortable that both tight ends would be available because of all the practice mock drafts. Even in one league where both tight ends got snatched surprisingly early, I knew I could get Andrews or Zach Ertz in the fourth. I didn’t panic. I generally knew where people were coming off the board and had backup plans prepared.
Unfortunately, 2020 was one of the more challenging years to get the top-two tight ends right. Kittle went down with injuries, Ertz was on the decline and Andrews was in the worst passing offense in the league - 171.2 yards per game, even worse than the Jets (and that’s saying something). The fifth option, Waller, was the target monster I should’ve been targeting after Kelce.
Luckily, my miss on the tight end was redeemable because of the value regained at wide receiver from the fourth round and beyond. I drafted Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and Diontae Johnson. All finished with higher values than their ADP, once again highlighting the depth at wide receiver.
I then traded Ridley for James Robinson and Christian McCaffrey for Waller - CMC was back and forth on returning at the time - to get the tight end I needed. Just like in the draft, I gave up positions of depth for the shallow position heavy hitters. It was easy to pick up production from players like Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool or even T.Y. Hilton by the end of the year because of the depth at wide receiver.
The draft practice gave me the players I couldn’t replace, and the maneuvers gave me back that positional advantage at tight end to win the league.
A Weekly Game Not Season Long
As much as I talk about the 198 PPR - or 162 Half PPR - being a tier differentiator, fantasy football is a weekly game and not a season-long total. Each week we’re hoping to average that 13.2 PPR from the tight end position, but how many times does that actually happen?
If you’re familiar with JJ Zachariason’s late-round quarterback, then these tables might look familiar. I’m trying to win the tight end position more than any other because the top-tier tight ends separate themselves so much farther than all other options on a weekly basis.
The season used to be 16 weeks long; I think it’s safe to say we want a tight end capable of putting up 13 points for at least half of the season. Well, that’s harder to achieve than you would think.
In 2020, only two tight ends reached that coveted 13.2 PPR eight weeks or more - in 2019, there were five tight ends. These are the elite difference-makers that we’re trying to get our hands on.
I like to use 13.2 PPR as the baseline instead of a top-12 or top-six week at the tight end position because of how unpredictable tight ends are. Some top-six weeks can have no one scoring 13.2, such as 2020’s week 10, and some top-12 weeks will have everyone scoring 13.2, such as week two. The 13.2 PPR gives a tight end value everyone can live with and won’t fluctuate with the position’s volatility. That being said, it doesn’t hurt to compare the top 12, 13.2 PPR and the top six.
13.2 PPR is that happy medium of not always reaching the top six but still differentiating yourself significantly from the top-12 tight ends. The sixth tight end of each week averaged 15.1 PPR for the 2020 season. It’s not notably impacting to fall out of the top six because even the elite tight ends struggle to keep that pace. Waller, Andrews and Ertz were all top-five tight ends in 2019 but couldn’t keep up a 15.1 PPR average. Even though they had fewer top-six weeks, their 13.2 weekly PPR was nothing to scoff at.
Now let’s compare across other flex positions. Because running backs and wide receivers require at least two starters, I’ll cut their increased totals in half to compare to the single tight end position used in most fantasy formats.
It’s significant to compare the flex positions at three weeks or more of consistent play. A line graph will help visualize the difference in depth at each position.
Right away, we see wide receivers separate themselves as the class with the most depth until you reach the elite wide receivers that are consistent 11 or more weeks out of the year.
This graph highlights opportunity cost. When a drafter takes Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill, the point totals they’ll generate will be some of the highest, and the picks will feel intelligent. But your running backs and tight ends will be harder to replace later in the draft. The wide receiver you pick in the first round will have to overcome the deficiencies you have at shallow positions (*cough* tight end and running back *cough*). That’s why, as a strategy, I like to take running back and tight end first and second - because of the availability of competitive wide receivers later in the draft. The separation of player depth is palpable in this graph.
We start to see running back separation from the tight end at three or more weeks. More running backs will achieve 13.2 PPR three weeks or more in the season; this is the definition of consistency and not just two fluky weeks of production.
That middle ground of three to eight weeks of consistent production shows that it is easier to find two running backs and two wide receivers to hit 13.2 PPR than finding one tight end to do the same. This makes the tight end the shallowest position among all the flex options, even though you only need one.
If you can find one of the elite tight ends that produce 13.2 PPR eight or more weeks, you will have an elite difference-maker at tight end and will have a much easier time finding usable options at the other flex positions.
It’s possible to see some charts with wide receivers having fewer elite players consistently, which is true; wide receivers are just below tight ends in terms of volatility.
Less wide receivers are consistently in the top 12 or 24, BUT the pool of usable wide receivers is much larger. The difference between WR24 and WR30 in 2020 was less than six PPR. Random wide receivers can break into the top 12 pushing out regular starters, exemplified by week 16 where Gallup, Crowder, Agholor and Shepard all became top-12 options even though all finished outside the top-32 wide receivers for the year.
This leads us to predictability. That’s what this game is all about. Fantasy analysts are trying to help managers predict which players will play well any given Sunday. Let’s go over which positions are the most and least predictable.
How Predictable
Quarterbacks are the leaders on the field; they touch the ball the most, making their sample size the largest and easiest to predict. Running back volume is consistently predictable on a game-to-game basis, while wide receivers need to rely on good quarterback play to get opportunities on the routes they run. The tight end brings up the rear. They generally run fewer routes than wide receivers, therefore getting the least number of touches and the smallest sample size.
Not only is tight end the shallowest position, but it’s also the most unpredictable. They have the least control on the football field.
Unfortunately, tight ends are unpredictable from top to bottom - besides Kelce’s five-year run as the number one tight end - and that’s why generally, only two of the top-five tight ends reach that upper tier.
The other positions are more predictable in their top-end talent and drop off significantly for their streamers, unlike tight ends, who are unpredictable throughout the position. But that shouldn’t scare you from taking one of the top-five guys.
Just like we know running backs are more likely to get hurt, we still draft top-end talent because if we do hit on that difference-maker, then the advantage is so much more significant than taking a “safer” draft pick. The key is scarcity.
We might not always be right on our first few picks, but if you don’t invest in the scarce positions at the beginning of the draft, it’ll be even harder to hit them as the draft moves on.
Earlier in the article, we talked about these difference-makers making the most significant impact during fantasy playoffs. That accounted for Kelce and Waller being on 25 percent of Yahoo’s top-500 teams. Kelce and Waller outscored every tight end by a significant margin throughout the final three weeks.
Their consistent predictability not only beat regular starters but also would’ve beaten the assortment of tight ends a streamer would’ve Frankensteined together.
I’ll show you the only way Kelce and Waller could’ve been defeated and how unlikely those starters were actually played. Just like in a waiver wire column, I’ll only highlight players less than 65 percent rostered and facing an easy opponent.
In week 14, Kelce would’ve defeated any tight end. Waller fell a little short of his usual mark but was still a top-six tight end. Most managers would still be happy with Waller’s week 14 performance, and if they advanced, they’d be even more satisfied with his week 15 performance.
Gesicki ended the season 73 percent rostered, so he didn’t qualify as a streamer. The only possible streamer to start the playoff-Frankenstein tight end was Smith Jr. - only 16 percent rostered and faced Tampa Bay, the 10th easiest tight end defense.
The problem with picking up Smith Jr. for week 14 was that managers likely played him again in week 15 when he had an even easier opponent - the second easiest tight end defense, the Chicago Bears. He only scored 6.7 PPR, proving how inconsistent streamers genuinely are. If you played him two weeks in a row, you were likely eliminated.
Week 15 had all the heavily owned tight ends score big.
This time Waller topped all tight ends, and Kelce came in third, only 0.3 PPR behind Thomas. Week 15 was the week the elite tight ends helped managers advance to the championship. The only viable streamer above 13.2 PPR, facing an easy opponent, was Higbee - seventh-highest tight end of the week.
Higbee faced the easiest matchup against the Jets but would’ve likely been a low priority to those that streamed Smith Jr. the week before - only moving from second easiest opponent to first easiest.
If you were streaming tight ends, the best chance to advance to the championship was to play Smith Jr., Higbee, then make up the 6.1 PPR difference between Higbee and Kelce with your other flex positions.
To finish off the championship run, Kelce and Waller finished as top-five tight ends in week 16. Their consistency throughout the playoffs was much easier to hit than the very narrow path of streamers that got you to the final round.
In week 16, there were more streaming options available. The question is, would you have made it this far?
Right away, you see Smith Jr. back at the top. So, after not trusting him in week 15 against the second easiest tight end defense, a manager would’ve had to throw him back in against the 14th-ranked New Orleans defense. Not only was he inconsistent, but his production was unpredictable based on the matchup. Pulling the wrong strings with Smith Jr. likely got you eliminated instead of crowning you a champion.
Hooper, Herndon and Hurst faced the easiest matchups playing against the first, third and sixth tight end defenses - all of them finished below Kelce and Waller. Graham did beat Kelce and Waller this week and faced the ninth easiest tight end defense.
So even when you play the perfect streaming possibilities, you still fall short of what Kelce and Waller did throughout the playoffs.
Even the best possible iteration of not playing Kelce or Waller - not even worrying about roster percentage - still wouldn’t beat Kelce. Gesicki, Thomas and Graham add up to 69.5 PPR, 3.7 less than Kelce, which goes to show his absolute dominance and consistency as the first tight end off the board.
No Plan is Perfect
The way I’ve always looked at it, the best path to a championship is to hit on the shallowest positions early - therefore investing the most draft capital on those positions - and gain back value late in the draft with deeper playmaker pools.
But no plan is perfect, as best exemplified by two of the industry’s most prominent talking heads, Andy Holloway and Mike Wright of the Fantasy Footballers. In week 14, they faced each other. Andy jumped ahead with a tremendous performance by Kelce and put up a formidable 145-point total.
Mike needed a miracle to win, and he got it.
Lamar Jackson outperformed Patrick Mahomes by 13.3 PPR. Mike Tomlin benched Diontae Johnson for a half after two egregious drops in the first quarter. Miles Sanders ran an 82-yard touchdown against the Saints, who hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in over 55 games. Can you believe this guy’s luck?! His supporting cast outperformed the difference between Kelce and Dalton Schultz. Let me repeat, DALTON SCHULTZ!
Andy’s Team: Patrick Mahomes: 21.62 Travis Kelce: 27.6 David Montgomery: 24.5 (Allen) Robinson: 27.3 DeAndre Hopkins: 22.6 Diontae Johnson: 8 = 131.62 flex
Mike’s Team: Lamar Jackson: 34.92 Dalton Schultz: 6.4 Miles Sanders: 29.6
Calvin Ridley: 26.4 T.Y. Hilton: 25.6 Keenan Allen: 20.20 = 143.12 flex
That is the type of outlier miracle you need to overcome a tier-one tight end. If it wasn’t for Sanders’ 82-yard touchdown run, Andy said he would’ve been the 2020 champion. The process of taking Kelce was sound. The result was unlikely.
When you hit on shallow positions, tight ends being the shallowest, you will gain an edge over the competition and be a front runner to win the league. The tight end is the first key to taking the championship every single year. Give yourself two shots at that key by taking one of the top five near their ADP instead of risking lottery tickets later in the draft.
As long as the tight ends continue to be undervalued in the second round, I will continue to keep grabbing them and win my league for the third straight year.