Picking from the 8th spot in the draft of a 10-team full PPR league.
In my league, we get to chose draft position based on how we finished last year. The winner gets to pick the spot he wants in a snake draft and then the choice moves to 2nd, and 3rd, and so forth. I finished 6th last year after trading Phillip Lindsay for Brandin Cooks for my playoff push. Cooks ran into the Bears defense the first week of the playoffs and I lost because of it. If I stuck with Lindsay I would've finished 4th, but that's neither here nor there. I put 2018 in the past, 2019 was going to be the year I decided to study like a true fantasy expert.
I chose 8th as my position after 1-5 had been taken. 8th was ideal for me because I could grab a top-end RB and take Kelce two picks earlier than his Average Draft Position (ADP), assuring I had a decent shot of getting him and RB1 talent together in the first 2 rounds.
When the 7th pick rolled around, James Conner, Dalvin Cook, and Nick Chubb were the running backs still available on my board. I had Conner ranked over Cook because I believed he was less injury-prone. Cook had major injuries two years in the NFL and in college as well.
I was wrong… Conner could not stay on the field at all this season, but when he stayed on the field his utilization and talent were there. He had 7 double-digit games this season, 3 of them were 24 points or more.
Luckily for me, the 7th pick took Conner, leaving me with Cook or Chubb.
I debated this pick for weeks, even though most consensus experts had Chubb over Cook, I didn’t believe in that rationale for a few reasons:
1. Reports out of Vikings camp rumored Cook was getting all the goal-line work, the TDs would run through him.
2. The Offensive Coordinator was fired for not running the ball enough last season, so you knew this season he would be given a workhorse role if he could stay healthy.
3. Compared to Chubb, Cook showed better hands catching the ball out of the backfield. Cook was the more complete player, even though Chubb would most likely rush for ungodly numbers again this season. (Chubb ran for 5.2 Yards Per Carry, a top 5 metric in the NFL)
An offense that will endorse Cook, give him goal-line packages, and he'll catch the ball out of the backfield, the potential was too good to pass up. The only hesitation was, would he get injured from his expanded role. He had been hurt the last two seasons. If you took out injury, he would’ve been my pick over Conner as well. Not only did I think highly of Cook, but I also had questions about Chubb.
Cleveland had gotten rid of Duke Johnson, which opened the possibility for Chubb to catch the ball more. But to jump to outlandish numbers? I didn’t think Chubb showed that skill set to be that kind of back out of the gate. He never caught passes at Georgia and had 20 catches compared to Cook’s 40 catches last season.
The second fear was Kareem Hunt. Every expert said take Chubb, he’ll get his numbers, and just worry about Hunt in week 10 when you're in first place for drafting a powerhouse like Chubb. But that logic also didn’t work for me. Why would you want a depreciating asset? Chubb would be an RB1 weeks 1-9, then become an RB2 at the most crucial time (going into the playoffs!!) after the waiver wire has dried up. You would lose the advantage of waiver wire priority and downgrade later in the season, opposite of the strategy you should implement. You want an upswing going into playoffs, not a downgrade because then you’re stuck.
Round 2, Pick 13: Was a no brainer. Travis Kelce, TE1, lock it in. I liked other late-round TEs, the Evan Engram, OJ Howard, and Hunter Henry group; as well as the late fliers: Darren Waller and Mark Andrews, but I couldn’t risk such a crucial position. I was willing to pay for the consistency of the best TE on the best Chiefs offense.
Round 3, Pick 28 and Round 5, Pick 48: I doubled up on Rams WRs. Last year the Rams produced 3 WR2s and Todd Gurley was going to be limited this season with his arthritic knee. Even more passing to 2 WR2s, sign me up! And then reports out of Rams camp were that Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp were being targeted much more than Brandin Cooks.
ADP dictated Woods would be the first WR I would go after and Kupp the value pick, but I was happy drafting either.
In Round 3 I actually debated between Woods and Julian Edelman. I had Edelman higher than Woods for most of my pre-draft board, but I flipped them last minute when Edelman hurt his hand.
I always liked Edelman more than Woods, but Edelman is constantly on the injury report. His physical play always gets him hurt. Going into the season I thought he’d miss at least 2 games and starting off with a hand injury, I thought Woods and Edelman would finish with similar numbers if he missed those 2 games. I thought it best to avoid the injury altogether and like I said I wanted to test my 2 Rams theory. SoCal bias took over and I wanted to invest in my Rams this year and so I did.
Round 4, Pick 33: This pick was without question always going to be Chris Carson. Another team that’s predicated on running the ball. My running back targets were the backs on teams committed to the run. Carson showed at the end of the 2018 season, weeks 14-17, he took over the running back position for Seattle. He averaged 22.5 carries the last 4 games. Then training camp reports said Carson was going to catch the ball more this year. Carson showed me enough that he would have the first crack at being the starting back and his skill as a RB would hold off the likes of back-up Rashaad Penny.
Round 6, Pick 53: This pick was important to get a 3rd RB. The drop off at RBs after this round was too great and there were valuable WRs later in the draft I could still find. On this pick, I was between Mark Ingram and David Montgomery. I sided with Ingram after discussing with NFL analyst Graham Barfield. The biggest sway was Ingram's schedule, it was too juicy to pass up, the easiest of all NFL RBs.
The hard part for me was not investing in a rookie RB because I do like finding gems in the rookie class. But it worked out because Montgomery was a major disappointment and Baltimore’s offense was much better than expected.
The next impactful pick for my team was Round 8, pick 73: Here I drafted Cam Newton. On Yahoo, his ADP was 77. I had two QBs in mind this season. Newton was my QB1 choice and QB2 was Lamar Jackson. I love me some late-round running QBs, especially with added rushing TD possibility as well. I liked Newton to bounce back this season, prior to the shoulder injury he was a top 5 QB in 2018. If I missed on Newton I would take Jackson later on. This pick did not work out for me because Newton suffered a Lisfranc injury and basically missed the entire season again. But in week 1 Dak Prescott was still on our waiver wire and I was able to fix my QB problem immediately.
I still regret not drafting Jackson this year, his on pace rushing in his limited 2018 season indicated he would be a great value. This year I learned it’s ok to double up on positions I normally wouldn’t, like TE or QB in a draft. Talent is talent and if you believe in their talent then draft them, especially late-round fliers. I missed out on valuable trade assets like Waller or Andrews as well as Jackson, even though I truly felt they would all break out.
Value Picks:
By this point in the draft, the meat of my team was settled in. I had my QB1, RBs1-3, WR1&2, and TE1. These next picks were value in the draft, combined with talented fliers on potential breakouts.
Round 7, Pick 68: Alshon Jeffery, the number one WR on a talented Eagles team.
Round 9, Pick 88: Robby Anderson, the deep threat on an up-and-coming Jets offense, who finished the 2018 season red hot, weeks 14-16 he averaged 23 fantasy points per game.
Round 10, Pick 93: Matt Breida, a talented RB who would start the season as a starter, and split carries when Tevin Coleman returned.
Round 11, Pick 108: Anthony Miller, a potential breakout WR who had a nose for the endzone.
Round 12, Pick 113: Dante Pettis, a potential No. 1 WR on the 49ers team. Weeks 12-15 during the 2018 season, he established himself as the No. 1 WR behind TE George Kittle, with 13 or more fantasy points in those games.
Round 13 and 14 are when the draft choices become crucial again. This is where I like to draft elite options at either Kicker or Defense. Early defenses will probably be off the board by now, but staples like Baltimore, New England, Minnesota, Dallas, Los Angeles, those teams will all still be around.
Going Kicker or Defense here depends on what is available, either way, the goal is to get an elite pick at the position here. Most often times that means taking an elite Kicker before a Defense, but if the defense you like is still there, go out and grab them in this round
At Round 13, Pick 128: Harrison Butker and Will Lutz were the last of the elite kickers to me. I chose Butker because the Chiefs offense is like nothing we’ve seen before and he’d get plenty of scoring opportunities.
Round 14, Pick 133: I chose Dallas because they started the season with 3 easy cupcake matchups.
Round 15, Pick 148: I picked another value pick, taking Justin Jackson, who would be splitting carries to start the season.