Initial reactions to trades and free agency signings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Tom Brady: The piece de resistance! Brady chooses Tampa Bay. As an NFL organization, the move should be celebrated, as fantasy analysts, it’s hard to ignore Jameis Winston’s top 3 finish last year. Winston finished with 5,000 yards, supported two 1,000-yard WRs, and threw 33 TDs. Sad to say it, but no way Brady puts up those kinds of numbers. Right?
With Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and OJ Howard as his starting receiving core Brady will boost back into a low-end QB1 compared to last year. My trepidation comes from who will be hurt most by replacing gun-slinging Winston with methodical pick-em apart Brady. I think Howard has to be used more now; Tom loves talented TEs. I think Godwin took that step above Evans on the depth chart last year and will be used to pick teams apart more out of the slot. Evans will be that 50/50 big-bodied WR that goes up and gets the ball when Brady needs him. It’s hard not to project Evans and Godwin both reaching 1,000 yards and 6 TDs, that level of production will put Brady back in as a QB1. The ceiling won’t be as high as it was with Winston but this first year might be like Peyton Manning’s first years with the Broncos, a honeymoon right before the train falls off the tracks.
Atlanta Falcons:
Hayden Hurst: Can step into Austin Hooper’s role on the Falcons, will be an increased usage and productivity for the TE in an offense that throws a ton, especially to the TE. That being said, not someone on my radar, more proven commodities out there.
Todd Gurley: His usage was severely diminished compared to his 2018 season. The main question is how badly has arthritis affected his play. He was visibly less explosive, where his chunk plays of over 20 yards dramatically fell from 11 times to 5 times. But his TD production was still one of the best, he was top 5 with 12 TDs. I think Gurley still has some in the tank and will get to prove it in an offense that will check down to him often. Last year, Freeman was top 10 in targets for RBs with 70 targets. At the right price, I would invest in Gurley but currently, his ADP is RB 12. Initial digestion, that feels too high for the risk that comes with Gurley being a miss.
New Orleans Saints:
Emmanuel Sanders: Drew Brees finally gets a No. 2 WR. The Saints needed another dimension to their offense besides Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Jared Cook started to emerge at the end of the year but a second WR is what this team has needed for years! This offense will give team fits when they decide to sling the ball, which they will do often to preserve Kamara throughout the year. This will be one of the best offenses in the league yet again and Sanders is the No. 2, sign me up. His age and speed have diminished a bit, but this prolific offense will help lift that load.
Drew Brees: Business as usual, he’s coming back for another year to make a run at a Super Bowl. Very capable QB, a QB1 that put up eight 20-pt games out of 10 full games last season.
Taysom Hill: We’ll see if coach Sean Payton was only talking all fluff or if he really meant it. Hill is supposed to get more work in this season as they transition to him past Brees. Undraftable for fantasy as a back-up QB and will slightly lower Brees’ stock if this is true. Kind of a believe it when I see it scenario, but Brees is too good. I don’t lower his ranking cause of Hill I just note the possibility of an impact for now. Brees was amazing until he struggled in the playoffs. During the regular season, Brees is the man.
Carolina Panthers:
Teddy Bridgewater: Like him as an NFL QB, this is a rebuilding roster and Bridgewater will help steer the ship through the rebuilding process. The good news is they will be down in games often so he will have plenty of scoring opportunities. As a thrower, his skill set is more suited for DJ Moore and hurts Curtis Samuel/Robby Anderson’s stock as a deep threat. Bridgewater's 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt is horrific for a QB. Bridgewater is outside of QB2 range.
Robby Anderson: I kind of hate this landing spot. Good for Anderson to get paid, but his skill set does not match well with Bridgewater. This takes Samuel off my board as Anderson will move into his WR 2 role.
This move further solidifies Moore and Christian McCaffrey as my favorite pieces in this offense. Moore and McCaffrey will be reliable check-down options with an upgrade from the Kyle Allen experience. This will be a tough team to watch this year facing Brady and Brees in the division. Expect lots of garbage time points and McCaffrey to still get his.
P.J. Walker: A sneaky good add for a back up to Bridgewater. Walker was a back up in Indianapolis but after falling out of the league, he went to the XFL and tore it up, going undefeated. He signed with Carolina's Matt Rhule who coached him in college at Temple. Walker is an athletic QB who made some electric plays this year, it'll be fun to watch the QB competition moving forward this year.