My ADP vs the Experts

Like most drafters, you listen to expert consensus and try to figure out which players you want on your team. This year I did my own research and went beyond what the experts said, I was able to formulate my own decision and set a draft board that differed highly in comparison to other popular websites. I knew exactly which players I wanted to buy their value and which players I wanted to avoid regardless of other popular consensus.

I constructed my analysis of which players would have the highest chance of success using a holistic approach. I researched training camp news, past seasons, team opportunity, age, injury, offensive efficiency, o-line ranking, the strength of schedule. Player rankings were placed accordingly. I moved some of the bigger names more fluidly compared to "expert" consensus. It was scary differing from popular sites, but I knew exactly which players I wanted to draft as my 6 flex starters. This was based on their ADP and the value I could get at the rounds I knew I could draft them. With each round, I had players I targeted and contingency plans in place if that player was already gone. Out of the 6 starters I drafted this year, I broke down each round and my ADP in comparison to what professional sites were saying.

Differences in my ADP ranking compared to Fantasy Expert Consensus:

Each ADP will start in order of closest and progress to furthest to the players' actual finish. Used ESPN, Yahoo, NFL.com, Fantasy Pros, CBS, and my own ADP in this comparison.

My Draft: (Yahoo Draft App, 10-Team PPR)

Round 1 Pick 8: Dalvin Cook

Actual Finish: 7th

My ADP: 7th

Yahoo ADP: 15th

CBS ADP: 17th

ESPN ADP: 17th

Fantasy Pros ADP: 18th

NFL.com ADP: 23rd

Round 2 Pick 13: Travis Kelce Actual Finish: 17th

NFL.com ADP: 16th

Yahoo ADP: 16th

ESPN ADP: 18th (1 pick off but after he's drafted)

CBS ADP: 15th (2 picks off)

Fantasy Pros ADP: 15th (2 picks off)

My ADP: 11th

Worth paying up for on an inconsistent position, a lot of misses in the middle/later rounds.

Round 3 Pick 28: Robert Woods Actual Finish: 26th

My ADP: 26th

ESPN ADP: 38th

Yahoo ADP: 40th

Fantasy Pros ADP: 40th NFL.com ADP: 42nd

CBS ADP: 42nd

At this pick, I considered Julian Edelman but wanted to analyze having 2 WRs from the same team. Edelman would have actually been the better pick at this spot.

Round 4 Pick 33: Chris Carson Actual Finish: 28th

ESPN ADP: 31st CBS ADP: 32nd

My ADP: 21st

Fantasy Pros ADP: 36th

NFL.com ADP: 48th

Yahoo ADP: 53rd

Round 5 Pick 48: Cooper Kupp Actual Finish: 10th

My ADP: 39th ESPN ADP: 42nd

Fantasy Pros ADP: 50th

CBS ADP: 53rd

NFL.com ADP: 61st

Yahoo ADP: 65th

I liked him just as much as Robert Woods, 1A and 1B to me, but I kept his ranking closer to his ADP knowing I could grab him later coming off of injury.

Round 6 Pick 53: Mark Ingram Actual Finish: 23rd

ESPN ADP: 35th My ADP: 42nd

Fantasy Pros ADP: 45th

CBS ADP: 47th Yahoo ADP: 48th

NFL.com ADP: 50th

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My Picks in my Dad's Draft: (NFL Draft App, 14-Team)

Round 1 Pick 9: Dalvin Cook

Round 2 Pick 20: Mike Evans (injured 3 games, weeks 15-17)

Actual Finish: 26th

Yahoo ADP: 24th

CBS ADP: 24th

NFL.com ADP: 23rd

Fantasy Pros ADP: 22nd

ESPN ADP: 19th

My ADP: 19th

Averaged 12.75 fantasy points per game, if healthy projected to 191.2 points, would've been 12th overall

Round 3 Pick 37: George Kittle

Actual Finish: 51st

NFL.com ADP: 33rd

CBS ADP: 33rd

ESPN ADP: 29th

Fantasy Pros ADP: 26th

Yahoo ADP: 23rd My ADP: 20th

Again willing to pay up for the top two TEs, Kelce and Kittle, 20th was ok to me, for top TE guarantee.

Round 4 Pick 48: Mark Ingram

Round 5 Pick 65: DJ Moore

Actual Finish: 44th

My ADP: 41st

ESPN ADP: 51st Fantasy Pros ADP: 62nd

CBS ADP: 78th Yahoo ADP: 80th

NFL.com ADP: 85th

Round 6 Pick 76: Allen Robinson

Actual Finish: 34th

My ADP: 45th

ESPN ADP: 49th Yahoo ADP: 65th

Fantasy Pros ADP: 70th CBS ADP: 92nd

NFL.com ADP: 94th

Round 7 Pick 93: Miles Sanders

Actual Finish: 19th

ESPN ADP: 64th

My ADP: 67th

Fantasy Pros ADP: 71st CBS ADP: 75th

Yahoo ADP: 85th

NFL.com ADP: 96th

Round 8 Pick 104: Curtis Samuel

Actual Finish: 73rd

My ADP: 57th

ESPN ADP: 91st Fantasy Pros ADP: 94th

Yahoo ADP: 101st

CBS ADP: 105st

NFL.com ADP: 116th

Round 9 Pick 121: Lamar Jackson

I don't include QBs in my ADP, I target QBs I like in a certain tier and feel comfortable with based on their ADP in the app I am using. It's almost always 7th round or later, I implement a late-round QB strategy.

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