Like most drafters, you listen to expert consensus and try to figure out which players you want on your team. This year I did my own research and went beyond what the experts said, I was able to formulate my own decision and set a draft board that differed highly in comparison to other popular websites. I knew exactly which players I wanted to buy their value and which players I wanted to avoid regardless of other popular consensus.
I constructed my analysis of which players would have the highest chance of success using a holistic approach. I researched training camp news, past seasons, team opportunity, age, injury, offensive efficiency, o-line ranking, the strength of schedule. Player rankings were placed accordingly. I moved some of the bigger names more fluidly compared to "expert" consensus. It was scary differing from popular sites, but I knew exactly which players I wanted to draft as my 6 flex starters. This was based on their ADP and the value I could get at the rounds I knew I could draft them. With each round, I had players I targeted and contingency plans in place if that player was already gone. Out of the 6 starters I drafted this year, I broke down each round and my ADP in comparison to what professional sites were saying.
Differences in my ADP ranking compared to Fantasy Expert Consensus:
Each ADP will start in order of closest and progress to furthest to the players' actual finish. Used ESPN, Yahoo, NFL.com, Fantasy Pros, CBS, and my own ADP in this comparison.
My Draft: (Yahoo Draft App, 10-Team PPR)
Round 1 Pick 8: Dalvin Cook
Actual Finish: 7th
My ADP: 7th
Yahoo ADP: 15th
CBS ADP: 17th
ESPN ADP: 17th
Fantasy Pros ADP: 18th
NFL.com ADP: 23rd
Round 2 Pick 13: Travis Kelce Actual Finish: 17th
NFL.com ADP: 16th
Yahoo ADP: 16th
ESPN ADP: 18th (1 pick off but after he's drafted)
CBS ADP: 15th (2 picks off)
Fantasy Pros ADP: 15th (2 picks off)
My ADP: 11th
Worth paying up for on an inconsistent position, a lot of misses in the middle/later rounds.
Round 3 Pick 28: Robert Woods Actual Finish: 26th
My ADP: 26th
ESPN ADP: 38th
Yahoo ADP: 40th
Fantasy Pros ADP: 40th NFL.com ADP: 42nd
CBS ADP: 42nd
At this pick, I considered Julian Edelman but wanted to analyze having 2 WRs from the same team. Edelman would have actually been the better pick at this spot.
Round 4 Pick 33: Chris Carson Actual Finish: 28th
ESPN ADP: 31st CBS ADP: 32nd
My ADP: 21st
Fantasy Pros ADP: 36th
NFL.com ADP: 48th
Yahoo ADP: 53rd
Round 5 Pick 48: Cooper Kupp Actual Finish: 10th
My ADP: 39th ESPN ADP: 42nd
Fantasy Pros ADP: 50th
CBS ADP: 53rd
NFL.com ADP: 61st
Yahoo ADP: 65th
I liked him just as much as Robert Woods, 1A and 1B to me, but I kept his ranking closer to his ADP knowing I could grab him later coming off of injury.
Round 6 Pick 53: Mark Ingram Actual Finish: 23rd
ESPN ADP: 35th My ADP: 42nd
Fantasy Pros ADP: 45th
CBS ADP: 47th Yahoo ADP: 48th
NFL.com ADP: 50th
My Picks in my Dad's Draft: (NFL Draft App, 14-Team)
Round 1 Pick 9: Dalvin Cook
Round 2 Pick 20: Mike Evans (injured 3 games, weeks 15-17)
Actual Finish: 26th
Yahoo ADP: 24th
CBS ADP: 24th
NFL.com ADP: 23rd
Fantasy Pros ADP: 22nd
ESPN ADP: 19th
My ADP: 19th
Averaged 12.75 fantasy points per game, if healthy projected to 191.2 points, would've been 12th overall
Round 3 Pick 37: George Kittle
Actual Finish: 51st
NFL.com ADP: 33rd
CBS ADP: 33rd
ESPN ADP: 29th
Fantasy Pros ADP: 26th
Yahoo ADP: 23rd My ADP: 20th
Again willing to pay up for the top two TEs, Kelce and Kittle, 20th was ok to me, for top TE guarantee.
Round 4 Pick 48: Mark Ingram
Round 5 Pick 65: DJ Moore
Actual Finish: 44th
My ADP: 41st
ESPN ADP: 51st Fantasy Pros ADP: 62nd
CBS ADP: 78th Yahoo ADP: 80th
NFL.com ADP: 85th
Round 6 Pick 76: Allen Robinson
Actual Finish: 34th
My ADP: 45th
ESPN ADP: 49th Yahoo ADP: 65th
Fantasy Pros ADP: 70th CBS ADP: 92nd
NFL.com ADP: 94th
Round 7 Pick 93: Miles Sanders
Actual Finish: 19th
ESPN ADP: 64th
My ADP: 67th
Fantasy Pros ADP: 71st CBS ADP: 75th
Yahoo ADP: 85th
NFL.com ADP: 96th
Round 8 Pick 104: Curtis Samuel
Actual Finish: 73rd
My ADP: 57th
ESPN ADP: 91st Fantasy Pros ADP: 94th
Yahoo ADP: 101st
CBS ADP: 105st
NFL.com ADP: 116th
Round 9 Pick 121: Lamar Jackson
I don't include QBs in my ADP, I target QBs I like in a certain tier and feel comfortable with based on their ADP in the app I am using. It's almost always 7th round or later, I implement a late-round QB strategy.